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Monday, November 21, 2011

IS HAWAII IN DEEP TROUBLE?


In 1976, 35 years ago, about a quarter of the energy used in the United States went towards the generation of electricity.  Now, the percentage remains around 25%:


By 2050, though, one speculation has electricity up to about a third:


However, Hawaii is different.  We are already at 33%.  But, our total energy use has actually dropped over the past twenty years and electricity generation has also declined since 2006:

A PARTICULARLY USEFUL BIT OF ENERGY INFO YOU SHOULD REMEMBER IS THAT, FOR ENERGY USAGE IN HAWAII:

  -  ONE THIRD GOES TO ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION,

  -  ONE THIRD GOES TO GROUND TRANSPORTATION and

  -  ONE THIRD GOES TO AVIATION

Renewable electricity is having a tough time getting traction, but the transition will happen because the state government is pushing it, the local utilities are complying and oil prices (at least 75% of Hawaii's electricity is generated from petroleum liquids) will skyrocket over time.

The future renewable energy potential (for electricity in Hawaii) is best represented by the following:


Under Discussion/Negotiations - Publicly Disclosed
Kalealoa Renewable Energy Park, OahuPV5
Mililani Solar Farm, OahuPV20
OTEC International, OahuOTEC100
Castle & Cooke Lanai Wind FarmPV200
Hu Honua, Hawaii IslandBiomass22
H-Power, OahuWTE*27
Kalaeloa Solar One, OahuCSP**4
AES Biomass, OahuBiomass5
Oceanlix, MauiWave0.5
Tradewinds, Hawaii IslandBiomass3.6
Lockheed OTEC, OahuOTEC10


To the above add geothermal on the Big Island and Maui.  Renewable electricity should not be an in the long term.  Just wait till the next energy crisis.

We have huge problems in ground transportation, particularly as ethanol is bad and I don't think plug-in electric cars are the answer.  Even worse, as tourism is our only real industry, we have a serious crisis looming in aviation.  


Yes, we do what we can, and for now that seems to mostly be a lot of analysis and some effort in green electricity, but we need a Manhattan/Apollo Project for sustainable aviation, and nothing much is happening here.  The State of Hawaii is in deep trouble.

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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk 209 to 11,587, with most European markets dropping, percentage-wise, around twice our decline.  Petroleum is at $97/barrel (WTI) and $107/barrel (Brent), while gold fell another $43/toz to $1683.  The problem, of course, are the European PIIGS, but the failure of our congressional budget deficit supercommittee should have also been a factor.  Actually, this means that the $1.2 trillion cut, half from entitlements and half from defense, will become official...but not until the 2013 budget year, so, in my mind, this is almost a best case scenario, even though I don't think our budget deficit is a problem.

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