TORNADOES IN HONOLULU

Honolulu gets tsunamis, earthquakes and hurricanes, but only around a tornado a year, no larger than an Enhanced Fujita - 1.  No one has died.  Moore, Oklahoma in 1999 was devastated by an EF-5 (the highest rated, with winds up to 318 miles per hour).  The monster yesterday (left) was probably "only" an EF-4.  The EF  replaced the Fujita scale in 2007, and the United States has suffered through eight EF-5s since then, with the 2011 Joplin twister killing 158.  Does the USA get more of these storms than any country?   Do we have the most severe weather conditions?  You'll be surprised with these answers, which I'll provide tomorrow.  For today, let me report on the weather in Honolulu yesterday.

After My Ultimate Global Adventure, I sometimes wonder why I bother, for life here in Honolulu is about as good as it gets.  After posting my blog in my campus office, I thought I'd bring a bento plate to sit under under a coconut tree on Magic Island to watch the surfers testing double digit face waves:

There must have been fifty of them risking their lives in major wipeouts.  They were mostly half a mile away so my shots were microscopic.  Best photo was of one of them giving up.  I fed the pigeons my meal of shoyu chicken and umani, with a bottle of beer:

There must have been at least half a dozen wedding couples:

I wondered why these paddlers were heading for those waves:

Then, sunset today was above average:

Sure looked like Star Trek's Enterprise landing over downtown Honolulu.  So, anyway, tomorrow, a comprehensive analysis of the United States with respect to extreme weather conditions.

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THE MOST WATCHED BILLBOARDS MUSIC AWARDS IN 12 YEARS

There was a time when I knew all the top ten songs.  Over the past few decades, there were weeks when I did not recognize even one artist.  So, a couple of years ago I decided to review TV award programs like the 2013 Billboards American Music Awards last night, which was the fortieth.  This one turned out to be the most watched in 12 years, and now I at least somewhat recognize some of the performers.  For example, the Top Ten on Billboard this week:

#1    Macklemore and Ryan Lewis (Can't Hold Us)--never heard of them

#2    Pink (Just Give Me a Reason)--no, not because her hair is pink, but on the other hand, she has worn pink (left), as has Nicki Minaj (on right, for breast cancer awareness, but she wears every color in the rainbow and more)

#3    Justin Timberlake (Mirrors)--got his start on the Mickey Mouse Club (here with Ryan Gosling on  his right)

#4    Bruno Mars (When I Was Your Man)--hey, he's from Hawaii

#5    Rihanna (Stay)--she was beaten up by her boyfriend Chris Brown (it was Bobby Brown who steered Whitney Houston towards drugs, but maybe not)

#6    Selena Gomez (Come & Get It)--former girlfriend of Justin Bieber (he, on the right, had the most watched You Tube video until Gangnam Style arrived), no they got back together...nope, they broke up again, speaking of Selena and Justin

#7    Macklemore & Ryan Lewis (Thrift Shop)--what, again...who are they, anyway?  Well, Macklemore was formerly Professor Macklemore, but was born Ben Haggerty.  Ryan Lewis was born Ryan Lewis.  They're out of Seattle.  This is the first duo ever to take its original two singles to #1.

#8    Radioactive (Imagine Dragons)...whoops, make that Imagine Dragons (Radioactive)--clearly, never heard of them

#9    Icona Pop (I Love It)--Googled to learned they are two Swedish disc jockeys

#10  Florida Georgia Line (Cruise)--Googled to find it is a country twosome

Taylor Swift won eight awards.  Nicki Minaj, who I thought was the personality of American Idol, won the first statue shown on TV, Best Rap Artist, and three in all:

Psy won an award, as he is now the most streamed performer, and Justin Bieber got three, but was booed:

Madonna prevailed on two.  Before and today photos:

Prince effectively ended the show with a medley of his hits.  Again, before and today:

Unlike most of the other performers, Prince actually sang his songs.  A downer was that there was no drama, as the winners and losers already knew the results.  In case you were wondering, here are  Macklemore (left) and Ryan Lewis:

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KEPLER HAS DIED: BUT IT WAS NEVER NECESSARY ANYWAY

I have worked for NASA, and specifically at the Ames Research Center, on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI).  In the 1970's one telling question was why bother with SETI when science had not yet confirmed even one planet outside our solar system.  So in 1976 NASA created Project Orion and brought together 19 faculty members from throughout the Nation to devise methods for detecting extrasolar planets.  Most the group worked together to design an interferometric system to indirectly find extrasolar planets.  I was given an opportunity to develop a direct method, called the Planetary Abstracting Trinterferometer (or PAT).  Click here for the full details.  I have thus followed this effort now for nearly 40 years.

I have been critical of the NASA extrasolar planetary search:

  1.  First, yes, sour grapes, but NASA ignored my proposal, deciding that the microwave band (wavelength from one mm to one meter--between infrared and radio waves) was the means by which aliens would communicate with us, and irrationally eliminated efforts at optical (visible spectrum, 390 to 700 nanometers, or violet to red) search frequencies:

for finding extrasolar planets.  They are unrelated.  Let me here editorialize that the choice of only measuring star wobbles or lucking out at seeing a diminution of light if a planet passes across a star (the Kepler method) was incredibly elementary.  The technique I advocated, through the guidance of  1974 Nobel Laureate Charles Townes (left), was a lot more sophisticated, based on planetary atmospheres lasing, resulting in discrete frequency peaks which could be detected and tracked in spite of the starlight.  Also, these frequencies would determine the atmospheric composition.  I had recently obtained a PhD, with my dissertation focused on tunable lasers, so I was well-programmed to explore this field.  I remain confounded that both NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) continue to base their searches on wobbles and transits.

  2.  In 2006, the ESA sent COROT (above) into space to search for extrasolar planets.  It succeeded.  Thus, I wondered why three years later the USA had to spend so much money on another spacecraft to do the same thing.  True, COROT suffered a computer failure late last year, but it was at the end of it's lifespan anyway.

  3.   In the early 70's, the extrasolar planet total was maybe one, perhaps something around Barnard's Star. Peter van de Kamp kept analyzing wobbles since 1938 for a quarter century, but, embarrassingly, was proven wrong, and key in this investigation was George Gatewood, who was an advisor for Project Orion.  Today, however, let us declare victory, for astroscience has found almost a thousand extrasolar planets. Kepler (right), though, has reported alone discovering 2700 extrasolar planets, so something is awry here.  These findings were used by the Center for Astrophysics to determine that there are at least 17 billion Earth-sized exoplanets just in our own Milky Way.  Then, there are at least 100 billion galaxies, so there no doubt there are a lot of Earths in the Goldilocks Zone in our Universe.  But is there any extraterrestrial life?

  4.  Oh yes, I did not quite say, yet, but Kepler,   NASA's extrasolar planet seeking spacecraft, is crippled, and probaly will die.  Technically, two of four reaction wheels (left) seized. The spacecraft is located too far away to fix.  The budget was $600 million.  However, the spacecraft successfully completed its primary 3 1/2 year mission.  NASA has the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (or Tess) planned for 2017.  But why?  What is to gain from finding another few billion more Earth-sized planets?  Let the European Space Agency send out GAIA later this year, then maybe even Darwin, a Rube Goldberg-like space system, and possibly PLATO in 2018, all to find extrasolar planets.  The mission has been accomplished.  We now know there are trillions of planets out there.  Let's get on with the real Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.  Where is Jodie Foster anyway?

I've never meet her, but Foster portrayed Jill Tarter, the Bernard M. Oliver Chair for SETI at the SETI Institute in Palo Alto.  Give her a lot more money.  I did work with Barney Oliver on the Orion Project.  He was a commanding figure.

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HOW MANY EARTHQUAKE FAULTS DOES JAPAN HAVE?

I was planning to post on the death of Kepler--no, not Johannes, who passed away in 1630, but that NASA telescope in space discovering earth-like extrasolar planets.  However, I'll do that tomorrow.

Instead, I will report on Japan earthquakes because I was stunned by a documentary I watched this morning on the matter of geological faults in the country.  There is reason to believe now that nuclear power will never make a comeback.   Here is the story.

Just a week before I left on My Ultimate Global Adventure, the Japanese government released a report estimating that $2.3 million of damage would be expected if a 9 moment magnitude earthquake occurred in the 559 miles long Nankai Trough located southwest on Tokyo.  In 1923 the Great Kanto Earthquake killed more than 100,000 around Tokyo.

Bear with me as I explain these terms:

  -  lithosphere:  the outer part of the earth, consisting of the crust and upper mantle (about 62 miles thick)

  -  tectonic plates:  sections of this lithosphere, which move like a continent--there are maybe eight major plates, and numerous minor ones

  -  subduction zone:  intersection of these plates when one is forced under--putting these plates under stress, where earthquakes occur during slippage (interestingly enough, these only occur in the ocean, for there is no submergence in that continent-to-continent collision in the Himalayas--in fact, the land was pushed up forming the highest point, Mount Everest at 5.5 miles)

  -  trough:  location of these subduction zones, such as the Nankai Trough above threatening Tokyo

  -  trench:  same as trough and deep, as in Mariani Trench, the deepest spot in the ocean, 6.8 miles, where there is an amazing amount of life

The Pacific Ring of Fire is just one long continuous series of trenches where 90% of all the earthquakes occur.

Now that you know all this geophysical information, let me come to geological faults, which are cracks formed by subduction zone stresses, which can form hundreds of miles away from these troughs.  The San Andreas Fault in California, for example, runs 810 miles from the Salton Sea area near the Mexican border all the way up to Sea Ranch and Mendocino, where I stayed for my final few days of My Ultimate Global Adventure.

If you search Google, you will not find this bit of information Megaquake revealed on NHK TV today.  Should you receive this English channel, the times are:  May 18, Saturday--0:10/ 4:10/ 8:10/ 12:10/ 16:10/ 20:10 (UTC).  The answer to how many earthquake faults bedeviling Japan is not four...but more than 2000, and possibly many more, for most of these faults cannot be seen at the surface.

Thus, while only two of the 50 nuclear reactors in Japan are now operating, it is possible that not many more will be re-started because of these geological faults.  Further, all of these nuclear systems are at the coastline, where tsunamis pose a problem.  If there is to be any kind of nuclear future for the country, it will be fusion, which I don't think will be commercialized until mid century, if ever.  However, a fusion testing facility (right) is being assembled 89 miles south of Fukushima in Ibaraki, and, at the coastline.

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SIMPLE SOLUTIONS FOR LIFE TODAY

I'm back to normality.  Thought I'd, again, provide simple solutions to our societal problems and needs, each from the Star Advertiser today (by page number):

A1.  The headline article is the University of Hawaii Board of Regents clearing the Athletic Department of $13 million in debt, plus other concessions.  Where did the money come from?  Well, academia/students, if you are of the opinion that there are only real two missions.  Got to give new Athletic Director Ben Jay huge credit for this arrangement.  Will this then be the end of their problem?  Nope.  I have a better solution:  find a dedicated billionaire!

A3.  Should President Obama be impeached for the IRS giving the Tea Party a bad time?    Well, every White House and/or party in power has used influence.  The recent George W. Bush administration intimidated scientists and those opposed to the Iraq War.  Clinton?  He was impeached.  But that was the Monica Affair.  These issues bug every White House, and you can almost understand why the Tea Party drew the attention of the Internal Revenue Service.  No new taxes?  No wonder there was scrutiny.  So what is the solution?  We already have one in place.  The opposition party.

A5.  Richard Brill points out that at one time Man used fire for light.  The efficiency was less than 0.3%.  Incandescent bulbs jumped the technology to 3%.  Not Thomas Edison, but Humphry Davy of England invented the first electric light, in 1809.  Edison came along around 1878 and patented a bulb.  His first filament to last more than a thousand hours came from bamboo.  Edison helped form General Electric and tungsten became the ideal filament.  However, it was not until 1964 that improvements reduced the cost of Edison's original system by a factor of 30.  The first patent for the fluorescent tube came in 1901.  General Electric also played a role and first sold a fluorescent lamp in 1938, for the efficiency now showed potential for 12%.  Many governments are just now getting into the act eliminating incandescent bulbs.  China has banned them from 2016.  Brill indicates that the light-emitting diode (LED), with efficiencies up to 40% is next.  Plus, unlike compact fluorescent lamps (CFL), LEDs can last up to ten times longer, with no toxic substances. All your digital lights (as in portable electronics) use LEDs.  However, they are not yet affordable.  EvoLux sells LED lights with the equivalent of a 100-watt incandescent for around $80, but it will glow for 50,000 hours, costing only $2/year.  Amazon.com has 100 watt-equivalent CFLs for nearly $3/bulb, and they last for around 10,000 hours, or roughly a cost of 40 cents/year.  Here is another comparison:

 So what's the simple solution?  Use CFLs for your household lighting.  Yet, the 20May13 issue of TIME magazine analyzed 60-watt equivalents and came up with LED at $1.14 per 3-hr day, CFL at $1.45 and incandescent at $2.55.  However, the article indicated that the Cree LED bulb cost $12.97.  Amazon.com has this lamp at $23.95, which would mean that the $1.14/day really is closer to $2.10.  I suspect the author (Michael Grunwald) wanted to show how great LEDs are.  I don't think he is right.  Someday, but not today.

A19.  Hawaii's homeless population is growing.  Government does not want to spend much, and many of the homeless just don't like to be told what to do.  Frankly, the public cannot afford to solve the homeless problem.  However, in combination with churches public schools and military bases, maybe:

Finally, whether they like it or not, churches have become the solution for the homeless problem, or should. Church space is not used at night and the membership generally wants to do well. A well-organized community effort, moving these dispossessed to the religious “home” of their choice, will spread the predicament, provide contacts with caring members and furnish a second chance. There will be problems, of course—for the homeless are just that because they are on drugs and have a high incidence of dysfunctional characteristics—but, certainly, there should be solutions. Military bases, public schools and other concerns with capabilities, land and a roof to offer should be part of the team, of course, but churches are best. The problem is that most churches are still looking the other way. In time, success stories around the world will galvanize religion to work with government and industry to help solve the homeless problem.

This is one of those solutions, though, where you might not want to even start, for the more we solve this problem, the more homeless will come.

B2.  Hawaii's jobless rate hit a five year low, 4.9%.  However, in 2006, unemployment rested at 2.7%.  Both figures are incredible, as many work at two jobs.  The national figure stands at 7.5%, while the Eurozone last month rose to 12.1%.  Is China at 4% or 8%?  It depends on who you believe.  Hawaii has no simple solution for the future.  When the next oil price spike happens, and stays high for a while, we will become the first location to enter into a prolonged depression, for our entire economy is dependent of tourism.  I've tried to initiate R&D into next generation aircraft and did everything I could to diversify our economy.  The Blue Revolution Hawaii advocacy for the Pacific International Ocean Station is just one of many initiatives.

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This getting almost boring, but the Dow Jones Industrials again attained an all-time high today:  15,294.  Gold, incidentally, dropped to $1366 per ounce, down 18% this year.


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MY ULTIMATE GLOBAL ADVENTURE: Final Thoughts

Some of you have been around the world, and most haven't.  Surely, you'll be thinking about these prospects the rest of your life.  You can begin by planning your possible itinerary.  

I fly United, so, of course use the Star Alliance program.  There are 1,329 destinations in 194 countries and 28 airlines.  The package includes up to 16 flights, and the cost depends on whether you exceed 26,000 miles, 29K, 34K or 39K.  As a rough rule of thumb, economy costs from $5,000 to $6,000, business class from $10,000 to $12,000 and first class from $19,000 to $22.  An infant is charged 10%, while a child 2-11 pays 75%.  You can stop to catch  a cruise and continue at an airport located in the right direction with the penalty of one leg. Save for the first flight, you can change the date of your departure at any time.  However, if you want to adjust the itinerary, the penalty can be severe.

Ultimately, I flew a little more than 35,000 miles at a cost about one-third of what individual fares would have been.  The longest leg of 7408 miles was San Francisco to Sydney.  Thai Air and Lufthansa first class were the best, with United the worst.  On international flights, try to avoid United First, for they don't serve caviar, Dom Perignon and Johnny Walker Blue Label.  

I was able to fly both the Airbus 380 (largest plane) and new Boeing 747-8, sometimes now called 748.  Frankly, I found them disappointing, as my expectations were high, and they seemed no different from older aircraft.  It was fortunate that I had avoided the Boeing Dreamliner, for these only have two classes, business and economy.

There are other around the world packages such as OneWorld Explorer and Skyteam, and travel agencies that can help you.  So, if you're interested and fly United, click on Star Alliance Book and Fly to begin to put together Your Ultimate Global Adventure.

Some final thoughts in random order as they come to mind:

1.  In China, for immigration/customs, avoid standing behind anyone that looks Muslim, for there is obvious discrimination.  However, on the way out with your baggage, stand reasonably close and behind them, for they invariably will be the ones to have their baggage re-X-rayed, minimizing you being selected.

2.  Don't go to Australia on Easter weekend, as just about everything is closed.

3.  You can't predict the blossoming of cherry trees in Japan two months ahead of time.

4.  There is always a potential crisis involving South Korea.

5.  If you go to China, don't breathe.

6.  Good luck walking around Frankfurt with a map, as the streets change names from block to block, and when officially re-named, it takes forever for tourist maps to show the adjustment.

7.  The St. Regis hotel in DC is very mediocre.

8.  You can't predict whether Denver will be 85 F or snowing two weeks ahead of time in April.

9.  There are nearly 27,000 wineries in France and 9,000 in the USA, with more than 3,700 in California.  Italy has one million winemakers, whatever that means.  In 1970 there only 441 (U.S.) and 240 (California).  Shiraz and Sauvignon Blanc are showing increasing signs of acceptance in California.

10.  The three best airports in the world are #1 Singapore, #2 Incheon (South Korea) and #3 Schiphol (Amsterdam).  The highest ranked American airport is.....tada....Cincinnati at #30.

So was this my final trip, ever?  Well, no.  I was asked by a couple of people to make a presentation about this experience and consider leading a group of friends on an Ultimate Global Adventure, probably this coming Fall or Spring of 2014.  Stay tuned for developments.

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The first named storm near the U.S. is Alvin, now at 45 MPH south of Mexico:

Alvin is not expected to reach hurricane strength.

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AROUND THE WORLD IN 51 DAYS

Well, My Ultimate Global Adventure has come to an end.  I left on March 26 and returned yesterday. These two photos of first waking up, then, my view as I am constructing this posting, are most prosaic, but yet, poetic, for they represent a kind of mild euphoria that I did it and survived, a little wiser and, thankfully, still alive and well, for the best part of any journey is coming home:

Jules Verne wrote on the adventures of Phileas Fogg in Tour du Monde et 80 Jours, and you can get the English translation for $2.99 (Kindle version).  Fogg gambled half his worth, $4 million (2013 dollars--the bet was 20,000 pounds then), in 1872 that he could circumnavigate the world in 80 days.  Not coincidentally, Verne was financially destitute in those times and wrote his story in serial form, where the general public thought this adventure was actually happening.  Verne "probably" took bribes from companies mentioned in the book to include them in the narrative.

The movie actually changed the book, as Verne did not have that balloon ride.  That was "Around the World in 80 Days," produced by Michael Todd (who died in the crash of a plane named Liz a year after he married Elizabeth Taylor) in 1956.  There was also a 2004 version with Jackie Chan as Passepartout, and in it was Arnold Schwarzenegger just before he became governor of California.

Getting back to the story, Fogg spends the other half of his wealth on the trip, including purchasing the ferry he burns just to get back home, and misses by 5 minutes, thus thinking he is broke.  But, aha, when you travel east, by passing the International Date Line you gain a day.  I wonder if I lost a day, and my title should be "Around the World in 50 Days," for I flew west.

My trip was not as rewarding as David Niven's (as Fogg in the 1956 film), for he wins a $2 million bet and gains a wife (Shirley Maclaine plays the India Indian Princess Aouda, who Fogg saves from immolation).  Our only common city stop was San Francisco, although I've been through all the book sites, except for Calcutta.  

Thus, while My Ultimate Global Adventure might not have been so fabulous, it was nevertheless memorable and gave me a hint of what I might do for the rest of my life.  In direct contrast to Fogg, I would like to cite an article by Harold Stephens in the Bangkok Post on 12July1994 entitled, "Is there something that's more beautiful than True Love and Money?," which influenced my retirement in 1999 and could well help determine the next step I take into the future.  Here is a summary:

Kung Chareon was a 60-year old rich businessman in Bangkok whose son was today returning with a law degree from Harvard and his wife was speaking to the International Women's Club.  He wondered if he could do it again, so with nothing more than a small canvas bag and a few Baht, took a bus to Chiang Rai (White Temple to left).  There he found a place to stay in a cheap hotel run by a woman and her son.  Leaving out some details, at the age of 70, now living with that lady, they had a chain of hotels, with that son returning from Harvard Law.  The challenge was everything to Chareon, and the final few words were:  ...he took down from the shelf his old canvas travelling bag.

Well, I'm at just that stage of my life, and My Ultimate Global Adventure resulted in a gift:

    1.  What I'll do for the rest of my life.

What else?

    2.  Truly great cuisine, in somewhat of an order:

        a.  Narisawa (best restaurant in Asia) Tokyo (to the left with Mayumi and Tadashi)

        b.  Maison Boloud (best meal value) Beijing (below with Manager Staci Chen)

        c.  Mr. and Mrs Bund (prime location and ambiance) Shanghai

        d.  Nahm (unexpected elegance in Thailand and third best in Asia) Bangkok

        e.  Est (3 hat Australian) Sydney

I can add Kahala in Osaka, Jaelo in DC, Il Fornuio in Palo Alto, Tadich Grill in San Francisco and the various meals I had at homes of friends.

    3.  Just staying with them throughout the USA was an unusual joy.  They helped shape the rest of my life.

    4.  Compounding the overdose of ethanol in Australia, Thailand, Japan, China, Germany, DC and Denver, I no doubt had the most wine ever in my few days through the valleys of Napa, Sonoma and Mendocino.  As far as I can tell, my liver survived.

    5.  I just dropped Pearl's ashes at one location, Matsumoto Castle, where a yellow koi gobbled up the gel cap.

    6.  The USA is the pre-eminent country ever and will remain unchallenged for at least the next century.  Hawaii is fine today, and, certainly beautiful, but I continue to worry about what will happen at the next oil shock.

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Well, the Dow Jones Industrial Average did it again, rising 60 to 15,276, another all-time high. However, all is not well with the rest of the world, for France today is not officially back in recession.  By the way, the Japan Nikkei is going crazy, topping 15,000 for the first time in five years:

I've been predicting that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was sure to fail, but got to admit that most of the rise occurred after he re-gained this position.  I'm confounded.

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This is the first day of the East Pacific Hurricane Season, and gaining form is Tropical Depression One-E, which is generally headed for Hawaii, but will probably end up in the Baha direction, and will become a hurricane by Friday:

No danger at this time, though, that this storm will do any harm.

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